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期刊来源：BMJ

文献发表时间：2023-12-20

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-077437

摘要内容如下：

客观

估计除夕/元旦假期后紧急避孕药销售的增长情况。

设计

使用自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型进行时间序列分析。

设置

2016年至2022年，美国的传统（即“实体”）零售商店——杂货店、药店、量贩店、俱乐部商店、一元店和军事商店。

数据源

2016年至2022年（n=362）期间收集的每周紧急避孕用品总销售额的营销数据。根据日期，将星期分为新年假期之后（n=6）或不是新年假期（n=356）。

主要结果测量

美国人口中每1000名育龄妇女的左炔诺孕酮紧急避孕药每周销售额。

结果

新年假期后，左炔诺孕酮紧急避孕药的销售额显著增加（每1000名15-44岁妇女增加0.63（95%置信区间0.58至0.69）个单位）。与新年假期（情人节、圣帕特里克节、美国独立日）一样，无保护性交风险升高的假期也与销售额增加有关，尽管程度较轻，每1000名15-44岁女性的销售额分别增加了0.31（0.25至0.38）、0.14（0.06至0.23）和0.20（0.11至0.29）。没有这些期望的节日（复活节、母亲节、父亲节）与左炔诺孕酮紧急避孕药的销售没有显著关联。

结论

新年假期后紧急避孕药的销量增加表明，与其他假期相比，这一时期与无保护阴道性交的风险增加有关。以行为风险为目标，采取预防策略以减少性暴力，并在节假日期间改善避孕措施的可及性，可能会限制与无保护阴道性交相关的风险。

英文原文如下：

Abstracts

OBJECTIVE  To estimate the increase in sales of emergency contraception following the New Year's Eve/New Year's Day holiday.

DESIGN  Time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

SETTING  Traditional (that is, "bricks and mortar") retail outlets-grocery stores, drug stores, mass merchandisers, club stores, dollar stores, and military outlets-in the United States from 2016 to 2022.

DATA SOURCE  Marketing data on weekly aggregated sales of items classified as emergency contraception gathered between 2016 and 2022 (n=362). On the basis of dates, weeks were classified as following the New Year holiday (n=6) or not (n=356).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE  Weekly sales of levonorgestrel emergency contraception per 1000 women of reproductive age in the US population.

RESULTS  Sales of levonorgestrel emergency contraception significantly increased after the New Year holiday (0.63 (95% confidence interval 0.58 to 0.69) unit increase per 1000 women aged 15-44). Holidays that share some aspects of the elevated risks of unprotected sexual intercourse with the New Year holiday (Valentine's Day, St Patrick's Day, US Independence Day) were associated with increased sales, albeit to a lesser degree, with respective sales increases per 1000 women aged 15-44 of 0.31 (0.25 to 0.38), 0.14 (0.06 to 0.23), and 0.20 (0.11 to 0.29). Holidays without these expectations (Easter, Mother's Day, Father's Day) were not significantly associated with sales of levonorgestrel emergency contraception.

CONCLUSIONS  Increased sales of emergency contraception following the New Year's holiday suggest that this period is associated with increased risks of unprotected vaginal intercourse compared with other holidays. Targeting behavioral risks, prevention strategies to mitigate sexual violence, and improving access to contraception around holidays may limit the risks associated with unprotected vaginal intercourse.

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